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思维导图作者：
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英文部分选自经济学人20240323期财经板块
Finance and economics | Buttonwood
财经 | 梧桐树专栏
How to trade an election
大选年交易经
It is becoming harder for investors to ignore politics
投资者越来越难忽略政治因素
Investors differin their approach to elections. Some see politics as an edge to exploit; others as noise to block out. Even for those without a financial interest, markets offer a brutally frank perspective on the economic stakes. As elections approach in America and Britain, as well as plenty of other countries, that is especially valuable.
投资者对待选举往往有不同想法，有人认为其中有利可图，有人却认为会产生干扰。即便对于不参与金融投资的人来说，市场也能提供一个透视经济利害关系的直白视角。如今，随着英美以及其他不少国家的大选渐近，这一视角更显宝贵。
Take what happened before and after America’s presidential election in 2020. Green-energy and cannabis stocks briefly became market darlings as the odds of a victory for Joe Biden rose, since investors expected his administration to enact policies favourable to both. Exchange-traded funds covering the sectors rallied by over 100% from two months before the election to Mr Biden’s inauguration, before later dropping as investors scaled back their optimism.
以2020年美国大选前后为例。随着乔·拜登胜选的概率增加，绿色能源和大麻相关的股票一度成为市场宠儿，这是因为投资者预期拜登政府将推出相关利好政策。从选举前两个月到拜登就职，以上板块的ETF涨幅超过了100%。随后投资者乐观情绪回落，ETF相应回调。
注释
Exchange-traded funds (ETF): 交易性开放式指数基金。为在交易所上市交易的开放式基金，代表一篮子股票的所有权，其交易价格与基金份额净值走势于跟踪的指数基本一致。优势在于分散风险，且便利性强。
What are markets saying about the current race for the White House? The candidates’ agendas are similar in places. Both tilt protectionist (though Mr Trump’s plans are more radical); both would oversee hefty deficits (though with different beneficiaries). But there are also big differences. Mr Trump has vowed to end Europe’s freeriding on America’s defence budget; Mr Biden is unlikely to renew tax cuts from Mr Trump’s first term that expire in 2025. Mr Trump would gut Mr Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (ira), redirecting green spending to fossil fuels. Mr Biden sees Mexico as somewhere to “friendshore”; Mr Trump sees it as a bogeyman.
那市场对于这一轮白宫角逐又有什么看法呢？双方候选人的施政纲领有许多相似之处。他们都有保护主义倾向（尽管特朗普的政策更加激进），都没打算大刀阔斧地削减巨额财政赤字（尽管受益方不同）。但也存在一些较大差异。特朗普决心终结欧洲占美国国防预算便宜的日子。拜登不大可能延续特朗普首个任期内推出的税收减免政策，而这些税收减免政策将于2025年到期。特朗普想废除拜登的通胀削减法（IRA），将绿色投资转向化石燃料。而对于墨西哥，拜登将其看作友岸外包的对象，特朗普则给其贴上坏蛋国家的标签。
注释
Friendshoring: 友岸外包，疫情期间开始流行的贸易术语，指将供应链改道至政治经济上更安全的国家，例如盟友。这一做法已经激起了国际社会对地缘政治进一步分裂以及去全球化的担忧。
This means that some listed firms stand to win, while others look likely to lose out. Higher European military spending would boost the continent’s defence firms. If Mr Trump were to roll back theira, solar-power providers and electric-car makers would be hurt, while owners of coal plants would be rather happier. If the vote is close, and supporters of the losing candidate riot, shares in architectural-glass firms should do well.
这意味着一些上市公司稳操胜券，而另一些公司很大可能蒙受损失。欧洲军费开支增加将大大利好美国军火商。若特朗普放弃通胀削减法案（IRA），太阳能发电供应商和电动汽车制造商将会遭受损失，而煤电厂则会相当快乐。如果大选中两边票数接近，失败方的支持者闹起事来，那么玻璃幕墙公司的股票应该表现不错。
Speculators can bet on the outcome of the election by investing money accordingly. Indeed, a portfolio of company stocks that ought to benefit if Mr Trump wins, as well as short positions on companies that ought to lose out in such a scenario, tracks Mr Trump’s odds of winning the election in betting markets. The chart below shows one such basket, assembled by Citrini Research, a research firm.
因此，投机者可以通过设计投资组合押注大选结果。也就是说，特朗普胜出将利好的公司股票投资组合的多头头寸，以及将利空的公司股票的空头头寸，代表了特朗普在市场押注中的赢面。下图展示的是由研究公司Citrini Research汇总的这样一篮子投资组合。
What about the consequences for broader asset classes? Investors who would prefer to avoid politics used to be able to shield themselves by simply holding a diversified portfolio. After all, in well-functioning democracies, politics rarely affected overall stockmarket returns, sovereign bonds or currencies. When assessing past American presidential elections, JPMorgan Chase, a bank, finds there is no clear relationship between the outcome and subsequent overall stockmarket performance.
对更广泛的资产类别影响如何？过去投资者如果想要规避政治相关风险，只需要做多样化组合投资即可。毕竟，在运作良好的民主国家，政治鲜少影响整体的股市市场回报、主权债券或货币。在评估过去的美国总统选举时，摩根大通银行发现，选举结果与随后的整体股市表现之间并无明确关系。
注释：
sovereign bonds
主权债券，是指由主权国家或政府发行的债券。主权债券被认为是最安全的债券之一，因为它们由主权国家发行，即政府或政府机构作为债务人，具有较高的信用评级和还款能力。主权债券通常由国家财政部或中央银行发行，用于筹集国家财政支出，包括基础设施建设、社会福利、国防支出等。
Avoiding politics is becoming more difficult, however. Pity anyone trading British markets while ignoring Brexit negotiations or the policies of Liz Truss, who was prime minister for the life of a lettuce in 2022. Elections also drive moves in emerging markets, which is why Brexit prompted half-joking concerns that Britain had become one. Until the run-up to the referendum there was virtually no relationship between gauges of political risk and the implied volatility of sterling as measured by options, which captures how much hedging currency moves costs. Since then, the two have tracked one another closely.
然而，回避政治却越来越难。那些在英国市场投资但却忽略了脱欧谈判和2022年时任首相伊丽莎白·特拉斯政策的人，都不太好过。选举也会引起新兴市场的波动，这也是英国脱欧后被人戏称为“新兴市场”的原因。在公投之前，衡量政治风险的指标与英镑隐含波动率（通过期权衡量，反映对冲货币变动成本）之间几乎毫无关联。但自打那时起，两者便紧密相关。
注释：
1.the life of a lettuce：2022年，在上任仅仅45天之后，英国女首相特拉斯（Liz Truss）于10月20号宣布辞职，这也让她成为英国历史上任期最短的首相。
2. referendum：If a country holds a referendum on a particular policy, they ask the people to vote on the policy and show whether or not they agree with it. 公民投票; 全民公决
3.run-up：The run-up to an event is the period of time just before it. 前夕
Yet rather than being an outlier, Britain’s experience may presage a global trend. Enthusiasm for state spending is now widespread, and fiscal excess can have large and unforeseeable consequences. The Democrats’ knife-edge win in the Georgiaus senate election in 2021 unlocked a bevy of stimulus, for instance. Treasury yields rose by 0.1 percentage points that day—a big move but not an unusual one. With hindsight, it is clear that fiscal largesse amplified inflation, meaning an even larger move would have been justified.
与其说是特例，不如说英国的经验可能预示着全球趋势。当前人们热衷于扩大国家支出，但过度的财政支出可能会产生巨大且难以预料的后果。例如，民主党在2021年佐治亚州参议院选举中以微弱优势获胜，推行了一揽子刺激政策。当天，国债收益率上涨了0.1个百分点，虽然变动幅度很大，但并不罕见。事后看来，显然财政慷慨加剧了通胀，也为更大的波动埋下了伏笔。
注释：
a bevy of：一群，一堆，一批：用于描述一组人或物。
Moreover, politics does not only matter more for markets; its effects are also becoming less predictable. Take a scenario troubling many investors today: that Mr Trump carries out his threat to replace Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve chairman. Would bond yields fall on expectations of looser monetary policy, or rise as a Ms-Truss-style “moron risk premium” became baked in? The answer is far from obvious. Its importance could not be any clearer.
政治对市场愈发重要，其影响也变得更难以预测。看看如今困扰众多投资者的一个可能出现的场景：特朗普当选，并兑现其扬言——换掉现任美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）。债券收益率会因为货币政策宽松预期而下降，还是会因特拉斯式的“白痴风险溢价”已被市场预见并定价而上升？答案远非显而易见，其重要性不言而喻。
注释：
Ms-Truss-style “moron risk premium” 是指为实行特斯拉首相时期的政策而支付或损失的费用。in short, the extra money the UK is paying to borrow
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